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Feb 4, 2013 6:00am EST
's something to be encouraged by. we actually think the opposite. so defense spending dragged down the report. that's not getting any better. the sequestration will likely go through. inventory rebuild, i think that that is premature to expect that. there's still excess inventories in autos, like trucks, for example, and then global trade, which looks considerably fairly weak and will probably stay weak. whereas the parts of the report that were viewed as strong, capital spending but most importantly consumption are likely to be very weak in the first half of the year. we just raised taxes by $200 billion. you hear the president, he wants more tax hikes, he wants more spending cuts. we think capital spending will get better through the course of the year. but what we heard through corporate america is that the near term outlook is still pretty soft. there's parts of the report that people took encouragement from are going to get worse during the first half of the year and that we're not going to necessarily print another zero on gdp. >> everyone sees the markets rocketing on friday who called
Feb 5, 2013 6:00am EST
for, you know, coming under detault. >> that is a lousy defense, though, right? >> exactly. but at the end of the day, going back to, andrew, where you started, which is the talk about this being a demand for a $1 billion settlement versus offering $10 mrl, what it comes down to is putting up that number and saying, that is how the government is holding accountable these firms for whatever you call it, but it's certainly at a minimum what the government is alleging is civil fraud. and i think a lot of people are going to get lost in the fact that this is a civil case because it's an action being brought by the department of justice. >> what is the largest kind of fine that you could have expect? by the way, as a point of reference, the.can -- we hear about $1 billion settlements all it is time by banks. this is a company that in 2011 made $911 million. put knit context. we're not talking about jpmorgan making $20 billion here. jac jacob, what kind of number are you talking about? >> the short answer is we don't know. this kind of action is unprecedented. whatever that settl
Feb 7, 2013 6:00am EST
and the defense cuts. so if that part of the sequester, remember defense is half of the sequester goes through, we could be looking at much slower gdp growth. now, our forecast for this year is 1.5% positive. that's maybe about half a percent lower than consensus, but whether we're right or the consensus are right, both numbers are terrible. we're not at trim line 3% growth. so i think that the politicians are start to go freak about what the implications are for smarter growth, based upon the full complimentation of this sequester. >> and, like, we will be thrilled to have 4% or more growth. now it's like 2 point something, that's okay. but certainly for less. >> there are two key drivers here. there was an economic impact from sandy, we felt, in the fourth quarter and the fist quarter. that will become a tailwind in the second quarter as we start to rebuild. the other issue is with washington. at what point do we get through all the nonsense? our view is that something happens positive. we're opt misters and that gdp growth begin toes ramp over the back half of the year. per se, we don't know th
Feb 6, 2013 6:00am EST
as a company. swe sequestration is at the top of everybody's mind. we have our aerospace defense conference this weekend, the big topic is why are defense multiples at all time lows? the answer is people can't move or do anything until we figure out exactly what's going on in the defense sector. >> one of the other things we see as a positive, the pickup in housing actually affects a lot of small business. >> sure. >> small business is the engine of job growth. >> we will discuss it more. >>> we have pimco's bill gross on why the american credit bubble is like a dying star next on "squawk." >>> welcome back on this wednesday morning in the headlines. saturday delivery of the mail is coming to an end. the postal service is announcing about 10:00 a.m. this morning, saturday delivery of mail will end in august and worth packages will still be delivered six days a week. the savings of all this, about $2 billion. dow component home depot hiring about 1,000 workers for the busy spring, the number is 10,000 more than home depot hired last year at this time, 80,000 hired. and you can count those nu
Feb 1, 2013 6:00am EST
. that's a change of the change. and then the defense piece which seemed to have some anomalies towards the end of the year, so i don't think that's so much of an issue. i'm kind of where austin is. if you look at the year over year gdp growth it's 1.5%. the year over year kind of smooths out some of those volatility issues. that's below trend. i guess right now, trend growth, gdp probably around 2%. it seems like when we're hitting two we were getting jobs numbers in the 150 to 170 range. so we're probably a little below that right now. >> i think trend is probably still 2%, 2.5%. when all the data come in, come out. the key thing in this report is the benchmark revisions. once a year, the bls benchmarks this survey based data. actual employment counts for unemployment insurance records. >> you mean rather than the political -- >> rather than -- >> this is -- this is a pure count of jobs based on the actual tax related -- >> actual number. we know of march that's going to be revised by 400 k. it's likely to revise the whole rates of growth since then. >> i want to stop you there. becau
Feb 8, 2013 6:00am EST
where we got the negatives was from the government, from defense, and you know, largely from inventories. that's going to turn around. i think the inventory decline was just an insurance policy. >> okay. >> that's all. >> rick, can you tell us if the bond market cares about this? reassessing the fourth quarter, you could argue, it's a rear view mirror issue. >> yeah, you know, it may as well be. because, actually, we decreased a basis point yield. we've rallied a bit in treasuries. and the preopening equities haven't budged at all. so, my guess is, there's a couple ways to look at it. you know, 157,000 was a loss of momentum. a lot of the positive growths could be attributed to the adjustment process in jobs. and housing, you know, i'm sorry, i think we for sure hit the inflection point in the rear view mirror. but i don't think i could ever use the word excellent. so i think it's a semantics issue. you know, it's relative growth. it's change of rate. you know, all that is improving. but we're nowhere near the type of growth space we need to be, and i think that the market is very sensit
Search Results 0 to 5 of about 6